A Note on RISP

The O’s dig the long ball, this is clear as we approach a 4th consecutive season where an Oriole leads in home runs. The argument lately has been that the Orioles are quite poor when not able to send one way back.

Using some data from Baseball Prospectus instead of looking at the batting average (BA) with runners in scoring position (RISP), a look at the number of runners batted in help paints a picture. It will shock no one that Machado, Trumbo, and Davis lead the way with the total number of RISP for the team this year with 161, 162, and 154 respectively. It may come as a bit of a shock that they’ve only been able to bat in 31, 40, and 31 of these runners. Now this examines all plate appearances (PA) and doesn’t account for walks or intentional walks where Machado has 43 and 9, Trumbo 46 and 1, and Davis has 76 and 3.

Jones leads the way for the Orioles batting in 31.0% of all RISP, Wieters comes in with 30.8% batted in at which point we see a significant drop to JJ Hardy at 26.2%. Unsurprisingly these three lead the way in batting in runners on third, Jones knocking in 55.8% of all runners on third.
The players at the other end of the spectrum aren’t really a surprise. We’ve all watched in anticipation of Caleb Joseph getting a chance for his first RBI of the season. Reimold (with 214 PA) has only brought home 10.9% of RISP, the injured rookie Joey Rickard (282 PA) brought home 18.2% of all RISP, and Hyun-soo Kim has only brought in 18.8% of RISP.

Kim Sits Again
Kim has been a bit of a thought for me in the Tampa series (as he sits again for game 3). He’s having a good season leading the team in BA .310 and OBP .386, sits 5th on the team with an OPS of .807 and an OPS+ of 114. In comparison to his teammates Kim has hit predominantly singles (75% of all hits) and has had a more difficult time against breaking balls since changing his focus to fastballs in the spring.
Buck’s had a statement on the pregame show before game 2 of the series when talking about Odorizzi. He talked about the pitchers record imbalance and how he’s far more effective at home. The climate controlled environment Buck said allows for increased grip and rotation on balls allowing cutting pitches to move more. This could be Buck’s thinking on why he’s sitting Kim. 

Is Reimold done?
It’s time to wonder if Reimold sees the plate again this season now that Bourn and Stubbs have arrived. Reimold has the lowest (outside of Joseph) percent of batted in RISP, only bringing 7.7% of runners on third across home plate. The next lowest here is Machado (wouldn’t have expected that) at 17.7% scoring.

Data courtesy of Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference

Gausman to the Rescue

In the beginning there was Tillman, the rest was chaos. It was a mix of young and old, that at their best looked like a staff that you could get by with, and at their worst was a staff that you wouldn’t trot out in Bowie.

Tillman was the undeniable ace coming in and pitched like all expected him too. The tradition of the long ball, and a great bullpen kept the Orioles in the playoff hunt.

Tillman went down in August after 3 starts, the last one managing only 2 innings. There were rumors of a shoulder problem and Tillman found himself on the DL as the Orioles found themselves trailing the Jays and Red Sox. The question became, could the staff that nobody wanted get the team to the playoffs.

Now the staff entering August was a bit different than the one that began the season. Bundy found himself in the rotation, alongside newly acquired lefty Wade Miley. Miley looks like he fit in with the chaotic pitching of Gallardo and Jiménez, while Bundy was a stud.

What about Gausman? Well he’s been pretty good if you look at the underlying numbers. Since the beginning of August Gausman has made 7 starts including last night and has  gone 5-2. He’s struck out 9 twice, got 8 against the Yankees last night, and posted 19 scoreless innings in his last 3 starts.

The only blemish in the last 7 starts was a poor outing in San Francisco. Against the Giants Gausman just couldn’t find the strike zone consistently, he lasted only 4 innings finding the plate 46% of the time.

Over the last month Gausman found the plate 62% of the time, given up 37 hits in 42 and 2/3 innings, walking only 14. Six of those coming in his poor outing against the Giants.

Gausman has been pitching like the ace of the staff for the last month. With Tillman slated to return against the Tigers on September 11th, and Bundy like he is, all of a sudden the rotation looks like something you might be proud of…well at least 3/5 of the rotation.

All data from baseball-reference.com

The Sky Hasn’t Fallen

August was turbulent to say the least, the rotation was up and down. The bullpen has run in to trouble since the All-Star break, and the bats have been a little quieter scoring less than 3 runs in the 23 of the last 46 games. If you haven’t been paying close attention, the Orioles are horrendous when scoring less than 3.

A case for optimism can be made as Bundy and Gausman have been pitching well lately. Miley had a decent outing against Toronto, but consistency has been his problem which explains why the Mariners, also in the playoff hunt, weren’t sad to see him go. Buck should be looking for 16-17 solid innings out of these 3, knowing that Bundy will probably be held to 5 regardless of how his night is going.

The hot and cold offence needs to find some consistency for the rest of the season as the team opens the 3 game set against the Yankees tonight. If the Orioles could get Trumbo to change one thing, it would be develop Davis’ eye. Davis known for having a good eye, may set a personal record for walks this season. His OPS and OPS+ are down from last year, but that can mostly be attributed to the awful post All-Star break slump he found himself in, which has rebounded a bit.

The defence will always give this team a chance to win, the question will be if the rotation and bats show up. It all starts tonight.

The Reinforcements?

In the hours before August and the MLB waiver deadline the Orioles added 3 players to help in the home stretch. Kyle Lobstein, Drew Stubbs, and the ancient one that is Michael Bourn.

In Lobstein the Orioles have acquired a young lefty who couldn’t crack the rotation in Pittsburgh. Lobstein’s 1.46 WHIP, and HR/9 of 0.8 are numbers that should look familiar in the Baltimore rotation, not the upgrade necessary. That being said, Lobstein should be able to spot fill if Buck decides that Bundy’s innings are getting to high. Let’s not forget that while Bundy has been spectacular of late, he’s already pitched more innings this year than the last three combined. The troubling numbers if Lobstein is to spot fill is the high BB:K ratio at 4:5, a BAbip against of .295, and a FIP of 4.67 which really can’t get much worse (let’s hope he doesn’t try). The upside for Lobstein is the 2 years of team control, if he can find himself a grove he could be a nice addition to an already strong bullpen.

Michael Bourn, who seems like he should be far older than 33, comes to Orioles from the horrible team in Arizona. Bryan Grosnick and Steve Givraz in their article  at Baseball Prospectus note that Bourn, as you could expect, has seen his speed drop off over the last few years. He’s got a neutral WAR (0.1) and is fielding at .965, which is actually lower than Trumbo who he’ll probably take some fielding time from.

Stubbs should be the player with the most immediate impact on the O’s postseason hopes. He’s a solid defender, who will be able to help solidify the outfield that has been far less effective than the stalwart infield. With Jones recovering from a hamstring injury and Reimold struggling at the plate since the walk-off pinch hit HR against the Indians, Stubbs should have the chance in Baltimore he wasn’t getting in Texas to get some time in the outfield. It probably means that Trumbo gets more time at DH, and Kim will be given a few more days off after being an almost every day player.

All stats sourced from Baseball-reference.com

The Roller-coaster of August

As we enter September, there’s 28 games left on the Orioles schedule, 13 at home in the friendly confines of Camden Yards (.642) leaving 15 road games where the O’s have been abjectly horrendous (.439), winning at a clip that many predicted this team would be around overall.

The last month for Birdland has been a ride that would give even the most experienced seamen green in the face. The team has homered its way out of jams all season, but even in August where the team hit 55 home runs, only 13 wins came in the 29 games leaving the team clinging to a tie for the 2nd wild card spot with Detroit.

So as we approach the climax of the season it’s time to ask, when did this all start to fall apart? The lead always seemed frail. The Blue Jays bullpen couldn’t continue to be so bad could it? The Red Sox and Big Pappi were bound for a push in his final summer.

August started with the Rangers and on the road to the White Sox, the Birds were able to take 4 of 6 games here posting some nice wins while keeping the opposition to 15 runs in the 6 games. We saw Dylan Bundy get some starts throwing like we all imagined when he was drafted, some run support out of the gate for Gausman, and Ubaldo pitching well out of the pen.

As the team left Chicago for the west coast though the season starts to slip away, the Orioles inexplicably having a tough time (.357) before the trip against the AL West. Oakland took 3 of 4, the team bounced back as the Giants floundered after the All-Star break and were able to take 2 of 3 from San Fran. But heading back home they took 1 of 6 losing both to the Red Sox and 3 of 4 to an Astros team that swept the Baltimore earlier this year. Giving up 50 runs in 6 games it’s amazing this team was able to pull out 1 win.

The pitching settled and the team took 3 of 4 from the Nats, although the pen really tried to give one up late. But the roller coaster continued as the team only took 2 of 6 (1 each) from the Yankees and Jays. Pitching again the story here as in the last 8 games the O’s pitchers gave up 52 runs in 8 games.

The calendar turns and the team needs to find itself. Tillman should be back this week, after a good simulation outing. The Yankees come to Charm City with Bundy, Gausman, and Miley slated to get the starts. Bundy and Gausman have been coming on strong, though Bundy’s velocity has dropped as of late and Gausman will face Sabathia. Miley had a decent last outing, but overall a disappointment. Gausman needs to go deep on Saturday as Bundy will be out around 6 innings, and if Miley can come out any time after 5 with a lead it’ll be time to get Givens in there to bring it forward.

On the sticks and in the field we’ve probably seen the last of Pedro. He’s been great in the DH spot after starting slowly, but with the additions of Stubbs and Bourn, and Jones coming back expect to see Trumbo head to DH as the team will sacrifice some power for speed and defence.

Where do they go from here? The season and a playoff spot will hinge on the 7 remaining games with Boston and 3 in Detroit. Tillman needs to return strong and the bullpen needs to bail out the rest of one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball. If the team is going to get to October, it needs to start winning some games on the road. The .439 road winning percentage is 11th in the AL, a mere .500 record would have them in a dead heat with Toronto.

It starts with taking 2 at home this weekend.